Update: Made in China
What a difference a year makes in the military and aerospace (mil/aero) market. This time last year, I was listening to market research firms and industry pundits herald the military/defense segment for keeping the aerospace market afloat while the commercial aviation segment took a serious dip.
Despite a woeful world economy, investments were being made at that time in military aircraft–manned and unmanned, and new and old; at the same time, commercial airlines and commercial aircraft manufacturers were witnessing a decline. Today, it appears the reverse is true.
A majority of component and systems manufacturers, not to mention prime contractors (primes) and subcontractors, serving the mil/aero market are taking a “wait and see” approach. That is, they are waiting to see The President’s Budget, particularly with regard to the Department of Defense (DoD). (The last budget, although unveiled by President Obama, was essentially that of former President George W. Bush.) Conversely, the commercial aerospace segment, including everything from airplanes to spacecraft to satellites, is taking off. Investments are out of this world. Unfortunate puns aside, commercial aerospace is a boon for the mil/aero market.
Why is commercial aerospace currently such a bright spot in a bleak economic picture? One reason is: China. Last month, I shared with you tidbits from several conversations with considerable mil/aero industry players and how they were sending parts, components, and systems to China for use in commercial aircraft. This month, I’m pleased to offer up the latest findings (a.k.a., proof) from RNCOS and MarketResearch.com on the growing Chinese aerospace phenomenon, for lack of a better phrase.
The civil aviation segment emerging as the major contributor towards the growth of the aerospace industry.
The US and European countries have been the dominant markets of this industry and are acting as a catalyst for the overall industry growth.
During tough economical conditions, the aerospace industry has shown an upward trend in line with strong market developments in the US.
The aerospace industry has globally emerged as a highly potential market, even after the economic recession.
Currently, the US represents the biggest aerospace market. The country registered estimated sales of US$ 215.2 Billion in 2009. The US is followed by the EU, Canada, and Japan. However, developing nations like China, India, Mexico, and Brazil are expected to emerge as potential marketplaces for aerospace products in near future.
With 36% of the backlog of large commercial aircraft, the Asia Pacific region is rapidly becoming the largest market for new orders.
China, which ranks among the fastest growing industries globally, has seen huge government and private spending in the aerospace industry.
It is anticipated that China will purchase more than 3,700 airplanes by the end of 2028, with an estimated value of $390 billion.
The air traffic market is expected to grow annually at a rate of 4.9% during the next 20 years.
The civil aerospace segment is expected to grow at a faster pace than the defense segment.
It is estimated that by the end of 2029, the world’s airlines will take delivery of 29,000 commercial aircrafts with total value of $3.2 trillion to keep pace with the growing demand for air travel.
(RNCOS’s report, “Aerospace Industry Forecast to 2013,” is available from MarketResearch.com at http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?ProductID=2849555.)
This geek thinks it may not be a bad time to be made in China?
Posted November 22nd, 2010, by J VanDomelen
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